|
There
are four possible “flash-points” in the Asia-Pacific region which
will affect or have repercussions on the Southeast Asian states, i.e.
the Straits of Taiwan, South China Sea, Korean Peninsula and Senkaku
Islands. It is in this context that we compared the balance of power
(conventional forces) of the affected countries (table 4). The Chinese
Air force clearly has a numerical advantage over any potential
adversary in the region. However, till China is able to acquire a
aircraft carrier, geographical constraints will not allow most PLA
aircraft to operate beyond the Korean Peninsula.
The
Japanese Maritime Self-Defence Force with capable maritime attack
aircraft, submarine force and a surface navy armed with Harpoon
missiles is qualitatively and quantitatively superior to the Chinese.
Even when comparing to the South Korean naval and air forces, the
Chinese do not have a significant advantage. The South Korean has the
advance jet fighter such as F16s, frigates and corvettes armed with
Harpoon and Exocet missiles. With the completion of the 9 Type 209
submarines, Seoul is quite capable of holding it’s own against the
Chinese.
Table
4 :
Balance of Power (Conventional Forces) in the
Asia-Pacific Region
(countries involved in the potential flash points) .
|
Country
|
Ground
Forces
|
Navy
|
Airforce
|
|
|
No.
Of Grd Div
|
Battle
Tanks (include light tanks)
|
Combat
Aircraft
|
Surface
Combatant
|
Amp.
Ships
|
Submarine
|
Combat
Aircraft
|
|
China
|
78
|
7500-9200
|
855
|
50
|
54
|
44
|
4970
|
|
Japan
|
13
|
1160
|
110
|
63
|
6
|
18
|
450
|
|
US
(Pacific Fleet)
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
58
|
-
|
27
|
-
|
|
North
Korea
|
26
|
3940
|
-
|
7
|
15
|
25
|
509
|
|
South
Korea
|
22
|
2050
|
23
|
44
|
15
|
3
|
461
|
|
Taiwan
|
12
|
1475
|
32
|
38
|
21
|
4
|
430
|
|
Malaysia
|
5
|
26
|
-
|
4
|
4
|
-
|
120
|
|
Philippines
|
8
|
41
|
8
|
1
|
8
|
-
|
43
|
Note
:
1.
Ground Division includes Infantry, mechanised Infantry, tank
and artillery division.
2.
Surface combatants includes carriers, destroyers, Frigates and
Corvettes.
Taiwan’s
recent purchase of 150 F-16s, 60 Mirage 2000s and upgraded
naval capabilities will bolster it’s military capabilities.
Taiwan’s navy, with a qualitative edge will be able to hold the
Chinese temporarily. China-Taiwan conflict if ignited would be a war
of attrition with China prevailing. However, the United States is
likely to interfere in such situation which will tilt the balance of
power in favour of Taiwan. In the Spratly Islands, if the Chinese were
to use force, it’s navy would be highly susceptible to air and
surface attacks from countries equipped with or acquiring aircraft
like F18s and MiGs 29s (such as Malaysia) as they have to operate far
from their Bases with limited anti-air capabilities and air protection
envelope46.
The
balance of power of China with the affected countries involved in the
potential flashpoints therefore suggest that no country has a clear
edge over another. It also reflect the reality that China will pay a
high cost if it indulged in force in any dispute. |