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Since 1978, when the late Deng Xiaoping liberalise the economy of the
Peoples' Republic of China, the rate of Growth of GDP of China has
been impressive at an average of 8.9% from 1981-91 and 11.5% from 1992
- 96.
This resulted in the tripling of the Per Capita GDP (1988 dollars)
from $202 in 1980 to $716 in 19961
If the present direction and momentum of policy reforms are
maintained, China’s output will exceed those of the United States by
20252.
The sheer size of China, huge population, rapid and dynamic economic
growth rate coupled with the modernising of it’s armed forces have
prompted concerns of a “China-threat” to its neighbours and the
World3.
This paper will focus on the “China threat” issue with regards to
Southeast Asians’ Security. It will provide arguments that China
does not posed a threat to the Southeast Asian States for the next 10
to 15 years and highlight China’s constraints in its modernisation. |
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1.
Trends & Politics in the World Economy,
“World Economics and Social Survey, 1996”, Department for
Economics and Social Information and Policy Analysis (United Nations,
1996), p. 7
2.
Straits Times,
“China World’s Most Powerful Economy By Next Generation”, 22
April 97.
3.
Denny Roy, “Hegemon on the Horizon? : China’s threat to
East Asian Security”, International
Security, vol. 19, no 1, Summer 1994,
David Shambaugh, “Growing Strong : China’s Challenge to
Asian Security”, Survival, vol. 36, no. 2, Summer 1994,
Denny Roy, “Assessing the Asia-Pacific Power vacuum”, Survival,
vol. 37, no. 3,
Autumn 1995,
Esmond D Smith Jr., “China’s Aspirations in the Spratly
Islands”, Contemporary
Southeast Asia, vol. 16, no. 3, December 1994 |