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Analysts
arguing for “China-threat” theory generally view that China will
be tempted to establish a regional hegemony, possibly by force and
it’s rise will trigger an arms race in the region. China’s
increased military expenditure and acquisition of modern weaponry
indicate hostile intention. If China becomes stronger militarily and
its rapid economy requires more oil supply, it will likely to resolve
the territory disputes in the South China Sea on it’s own terms by
military force4.
A state can project either an actual (inferred from more or less
signals of intent) or potential threat (inferred from some state of
the environment or the mere capability of the opponent). While threatening action can
be by military violence, economically or ideologically, it is the
military threat that has been the classic threat5.
Military threat would require the necessary military capability to
carry out its hostile intentions. It is within this context that
we examine whether China posed a threat to Southeast Asians’
security. China’s defence expenditure, military capabilities,
modernisation of the PLA, possible intentions, the balance of
power of the selected countries in the Asia-Pacific and the
constraints that it faced in it’s modernisation will be explored to
substantiate that the “China threat” is a fallacy.
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Ibid.
.
Klaus Knorr, “Threat Perception”, in
Historical Dimensions of National Security Problems, edited by
Klaus Knorr, (Kansas :University Press of Kansas, 1976). |
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